The fluctuations are intense from month to month, which is surprising given it's aggregate data for over 100 projets.
Potential explanation: Many projects used today by Tiki were born in 2011-2013 and there was a lot of initial activity and things stabilized because many projects became more established and because of the move to Git (more work/output per commit, because multiple commits are squashed into one). Also, some projects were started on GitHub.